IMF研究部主任：预计全球经济继续放缓，明年有望反弹

导读

今年全球经济预计放缓，明年起开始反弹。俄罗斯经济增长仍将疲弱，反通货膨胀和俄乌冲突给经济带来压力。然而当前经济前景好于去年预期，这一转折点或预示经济增长触底，通胀下降。加之，中国重新开放帮助经济快速反弹。因此，我们小幅上调了增长预测。

全球经济增长将从2022年的3.4%放缓至2.9%，在2024年反弹至3.1%。中印两大主要经济体仍将推动经济发展。全球通胀率将会下降，但至2024年大部分国家年平均整体和核心通胀率仍将高于疫情前。

当前风险如下，一是新冠疫情蔓延、房地产行业爆冷，可能导致中国经济复苏陷入停滞；二是因紧张的劳动力市场以及工资压力，通胀居高不下，不得不采取紧缩的货币政策，经济或将急剧放缓；三是全球经济由于俄乌冲突、能源或食品市场不稳定，可能进一步分化；四是因金融市场突然重新定价，导致金融环境紧张。

好消息是，个人需求维持稳定，供应链瓶颈得以缓解，岗位空缺率下降会带来经济软着陆。抑制通胀初见成效，但仍需谨慎，如通胀压力维持高位，央行将需提高实际政策利率，不可过早放松货币政策。目前金融环境依然脆弱，新兴市场经济体应尽量调整货币政策，必要时可采取外汇干预或资本流动措施。各国应采取有针对性的措施，保留财政空间，以价格抑制能源需求，避免过度刺激经济。或从供应方着手发挥政策作用，缓解价格压力，实现绿色过渡。

此外，地缘经济破裂的情况下，我们必须支持多边合作，尤其是国际贸易、全球金融安全网、公共卫生准备和气候过渡等重点领域。在多方合作之下促进可持续增长并稳定物价，全球将逐渐复苏，全球经济前景仍旧乐观。

作者 | Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas，IMF研究部主任

Global Economy to Slow Further 

Global Economy to Slow Further Amid Signs of Resilience and China Re-opening. The fight against inflation is starting to pay off, but central banks must continue their efforts

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Economic Counsellor and the Director of Research of the IMF

January 30, 2023

The global economy is poised to slow this year, before rebounding next year. Growth will remain weak by historical standards, as the fight against inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine weigh on activity.

Despite these headwinds, the outlook is less gloomy than in our October forecast, and could represent a turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation declining.

Economic growth proved surprisingly resilient in the third quarter of last year, with strong labor markets, robust household consumption and business investment, and better-than-expected adaptation to the energy crisis in Europe. Inflation, too, showed improvement, with overall measures now decreasing in most countries—even if core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, has yet to peak in many countries.

Elsewhere, China’s sudden re-opening paves the way for a rapid rebound in activity. And global financial conditions have improved as inflation pressures started to abate. This, and a weakening of the US dollar from its November high, provided some modest relief to emerging and developing countries.

Accordingly, we have slightly increased our 2022 and 2023 growth forecasts. Global growth will slow from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023 then rebound to 3.1 percent in 2024.

For advanced economies, the slowdown will be more pronounced, with a decline from 2.7 percent last year to 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent this year and next. Nine out of 10 advanced economies will likely decelerate.

US growth will slow to 1.4 percent in 2023 as Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes work their way through the economy. Euro area conditions are more challenging despite signs of resilience to the energy crisis, a mild winter, and generous fiscal support. With the European Central Bank tightening monetary policy, and a negative terms-of-trade shock—due to the increase in the price of its imported energy—we expect growth to bottom out at 0.7 percent this year.

Emerging market and developing economies have already bottomed out as a group, with growth expected to rise modestly to 4 percent and 4.2 percent this year and next.

The restrictions and COVID-19 outbreaks in China dampened activity last year. With the economy now re-opened, we see growth rebounding to 5.2 percent this year as activity and mobility recover.

India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined. Global inflation is expected to decline this year but even by 2024, projected average annual headline and core inflation will still be above pre-pandemic levels in more than 80 percent of countries.

The risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, even if adverse risks have moderated since October and some positive factors gained in relevance.

On the downside:

(1) China’s recovery could stall amid greater-than-expected economic disruptions from current or future waves of COVID-19 infections or a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the property sector

(2) Inflation could remain stubbornly high amid continued labor-market tightness and growing wage pressures, requiring tighter monetary policies and a resulting sharper slowdown in activity

(3) An escalation of the war in Ukraine remains a major threat to global stability that could destabilize energy or food markets and further fragment the global economy

(4) A sudden repricing in financial markets, for instance in response to adverse inflation surprises, could tighten financial conditions, especially in emerging market and developing economies

On the upside:

(1) Strong household balance sheets, together with tight labor markets and solid wage growth could help sustain private demand, although potentially complicating the fight against inflation

(2) Easing supply-chain bottlenecks and labor markets cooling due to falling vacancies could allow for a softer landing, requiring less monetary tightening

Policy priorities

The inflation news is encouraging, but the battle is far from won. Monetary policy has started to bite, with a slowdown in new home construction in many countries. Yet, inflation-adjusted interest rates remain low or even negative in the euro area and other economies, and there is significant uncertainty about both the speed and effectiveness of monetary tightening in many countries.

Where inflation pressures remain too elevated, central banks need to raise real policy rates above the neutral rate and keep them there until underlying inflation is on a decisive declining path. Easing too early risks undoing all the gains achieved so far.

The financial environment remains fragile, especially as central banks embark on an uncharted path toward shrinking their balance sheets. It will be important to monitor the build-up of risks and address vulnerabilities, especially in the housing sector or in the less-regulated non-bank financial sector. Emerging market economies should let their currencies adjust as much as possible in response to the tighter global monetary conditions. Where appropriate, foreign exchange interventions or capital flow measures can help smooth volatility that’s excessive or not related to economic fundamentals.

Many countries responded to the cost-of-living crisis by supporting people and businesses with broad and untargeted policies that helped cushion the shock. Many of these measures have proved costly and increasingly unsustainable. Countries should instead adopt targeted measures that conserve fiscal space, allow high energy prices to reduce demand for energy, and avoid overly stimulating the economy.

Supply-side policies also have a role to play. They can help remove key growth constraints, improve resilience, ease price pressures, and foster the green transition. These would help alleviate the accumulated output losses since the beginning of the pandemic, especially in emerging and low-income economies.

Finally, the forces of geoeconomic fragmentation are growing. We must buttress multilateral cooperation, especially on fundamental areas of common interest such as international trade, expanding the global financial safety net, public health preparedness and the climate transition.

This time around, the global economic outlook hasn’t worsened. That’s good news, but not enough. The road back to a full recovery, with sustainable growth, stable prices, and progress for all, is only starting.

编译：陈沁钰

本文监制：董熙君

来源｜IMF

版面编辑｜马林

责任编辑｜李锦璇、蒋旭

总监制｜朱霜霜

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